Attribution
What is incrementality in ecommerce advertising?
Incrementality asks a harder question than attribution: how many sales happened because of the advertising that would not have happened otherwise? Attribution asks which interaction gets credit. Incrementality tries to estimate causation.
Why the distinction matters
Suppose Meta retargeting reports 1,000 purchases. If 800 of those customers would have bought anyway, the campaign's incremental contribution is much smaller than the attributed number.
The reverse can happen too. A Meta ad may introduce a customer who later buys through Google, causing last-click reporting to undervalue Meta's incremental role.
How incrementality is measured
Depending on scale and platform capabilities, approaches can include:
- holdout groups;
- geographic tests;
- conversion-lift studies;
- controlled budget changes;
- causal modelling.
None is perfect, and smaller advertisers may not have enough volume for sophisticated tests.
Use attribution for operations, incrementality for bigger decisions
Platforms need attribution signals to optimize campaigns. Businesses need a broader view when deciding whether an entire channel or program deserves budget.
Incrementality does not replace attribution. It answers a different question, one explored further in attribution vs incrementality.
Find out what advertising actually adds
If your platforms claim lots of revenue but you are unsure how much advertising actually adds to total Shopify sales, send us an inquiry. We can help frame the right measurement approach.