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A new PMax campaign needs enough time and conversions to show a pattern, but there is no responsible answer such as "always wait six weeks."
A store producing 100 purchases a day can learn more in three days than a high-AOV store producing three purchases a month can learn in six weeks. Judge confidence against the number of useful outcomes, not the calendar alone.
You should not wait patiently if: purchase tracking is wrong; Merchant Center products are disapproved; the landing page is broken; the campaign targets the wrong country; conversion goals are incorrect. Those are setup issues, not learning.
Automated bidding explores opportunities and may shift product distribution during early delivery. Avoid reacting to every short-term movement.
Look at Shopify sales, Google conversion value, product performance and new-customer contribution. If possible, compare to the previous campaign setup or broader store trend. A new PMax campaign should be given enough data to be judged fairly, but "give it more time" should never become an excuse for ignoring obvious bad economics.
If you launched PMax and do not know whether the campaign needs patience or intervention, contact us. We can assess the data against your actual sales volume.